Long-lead
forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) (June – September)
(These
forecasts are independent of IMD’s forecast. For details refer to the paper
mentioned at the end this page)
|
All India
Forecast for 2021 (Forecasted in October 2020. All values are in mm) |
Homogeneous
Monsoon Regions Forecast for 2021 (Forecasted in
December 2020. All values are in mm) |
Previous
Year’s Forecasts and Observed values (All values are
in mm) |
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Notes:
· All India forecast excludes Jammu & Kashmir, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
· Normal values are as per IMD’s long-period average (LPA).
· Forecasts for Indian summer monsoon rainfall are obtained using a time-varying model. Details are available in the following paper:
Dutta, R., and R. Maity, (2018), Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 8:10778, Nature Publishing Group, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z
Dutta, R., and R. Maity, (2020), Spatial variation in long-lead predictability of summer monsoon rainfall using a time-varying model and global climatic indices, International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), 40(14),5925-5940, doi: 10.1002/joc.6556