Long-lead
forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) (June – September)
(These
forecasts are independent of IMD’s forecast. For details refer to the paper
mentioned at the end this page)
All India
Forecast for 2023 (Forecasted in October 2022. All values are in mm) |
Homogeneous
Monsoon Regions Forecast for 2022 (Forecasted in
December 2021. All values are in mm) |
Previous
Year’s Forecasts and Observed values (All values are
in mm) |
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Notes:
· All India forecast excludes Jammu & Kashmir, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
· Normal values are as per IMD’s long-period average (LPA).
· Forecasts for Indian summer monsoon rainfall are obtained using a time-varying model. Details are available in the following paper:
Dutta, R., and R. Maity, (2018), Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 8:10778, Nature Publishing Group, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z
Dutta, R., and R. Maity, (2020), Spatial variation in long-lead predictability of summer monsoon rainfall using a time-varying model and global climatic indices, International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), 40(14),5925-5940, doi: 10.1002/joc.6556