IIT KHARAGPUR AICTE-QIP Short Course
RISK AND RELIABILITY ANALYSES OF ENGINEERING SYSTEMS
Date: TBA	Instructor: B. Bhattacharya

Reading for fundamentals:	· Probability and Statistics for Engineering, Hines et al. , Wiley, 2008 (ISBN 9788126516469)
Further recommended reading:	· Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. I, A. H-S Ang and W. H. Tang, Wiley, 1975 · Introduction to Reliability Engineering, 2^nd Ed., Lewis, Wiley, 1996 (ISBN 0471018333) · Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems, Stewart and Melchers, Chapman and Hall 1997 (ISBN 0412805707)

Brief Course Outline

Justification: Chance and variabilty are intimately associated with engineering activities. They manifest as (i) variabilities in system properties, (ii) uncertainties in future demands, (iii) human error during design, construction/manufacturing or operation, (iv) deviation of actual system behavior from the idealized mathematical model, and sometimes as (v) intentionally-caused damages that are much beyond the normal design envelope.

Objective: This short course makes students aware of the role of chance, variability and incomplete information in engineering activities and how to model them rationally and effectively. The course will enable students make rational and informed decisions in the presence of uncertainties and teach them the application of probabilistic methods in the design and maintenance of engineering systems.

Novelty: The traditional approach to dealing with uncertainties is to introduce factors of safety and/or redundancy in the system. A more rational and direct approach, however, is to model the uncertainties themselves and to allow a sufficiently small but non-zero probability of unacceptable performance. Such criteria, importantly, cannot be based solely on engineering judgment, but need to incorporate societal values and concerns as well.

Expected benefits: It is hoped that this course will give the participants sufficient insight and ability to tackle a difficult and complex issue in their profession. The proposed course aims to enable the students to take informed and rational decisions in the presence of uncertainties in the analysis design and maintenance of engineering facilities. It also aims to give the students a global view of their profession allowing them to manage risks in engineering activities in a way that societal concerns are integrated with their professional needs.

Syllabus

Day	Topics
1	Introduction and overview. Review of basic probability. Random variables, probability laws, common probability distributions – origins and interrelations. Functions of random variables. Joint probability distributions, conditional distributions. Joint Normal distribution. Concepts of stochastic process.
2	Reliability – historical development, applications, different measures of reliability. Probabilistic formulation of engineering problems. Concepts of performance requirements and definitions of failure. Component reliability - time to failure. Formulation of structural reliability problems: limit states.
3	System reliability - representation of failure, series and parallel systems, redundancy, fault trees. Common cause failure and and multi-state components. Reliability-based maintenance. Perfect and imperfect repair.
4	Concepts of robustness and resilience of systems. Consequence of failure, concepts of risk, utility, soceital impact Probability-based acceptance criteria – target reliability, uniform hazard vs. uniform risk, , decision making in the presence of uncertainties.
5	Probability-based design. Reliability-based design codes – factors of safety, assignment vs. calibration of target reliabilities. Case studies. Final Exam.

Grading:

Daily quiz: 10 points each. Final exam: 60 points.